{"id":28729,"date":"2015-06-25T10:44:08","date_gmt":"2015-06-25T14:44:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jetnation.com\/?p=28729"},"modified":"2015-06-25T10:44:08","modified_gmt":"2015-06-25T14:44:08","slug":"five-reasons-to-be-worried-about-new-york-jets-geno-smith","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/2015\/06\/25\/five-reasons-to-be-worried-about-new-york-jets-geno-smith\/","title":{"rendered":"Five Reasons to be Worried About Geno Smith"},"content":{"rendered":"\"New<\/a>\n

 <\/p>\n

By Glenn Naughton<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A few weeks ago we pointed out five reasons for Jets fans to remain optimistic<\/a><\/strong><\/span> regarding the future of third-year quarterback Geno Smith despite his well-documented struggles as a pro thus far.<\/p>\n

This week, we look at the other side of the coin and cover some of the lingering concerns pertaining to the West Virginia product who has been named the Jets starting quarterback by head coach Todd Bowles who also said Smith could lose the job to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick if his play were to sputter.<\/p>\n

1) History is not on\u00a0 Smith’s side<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Entering\u00a0 his third season, Smith’s production is far from anything NFL fans have seen from any super bowl winning quarterback with the lone exception of course being Trent Dilfer with the Baltimore Ravens<\/a><\/strong><\/span> as one of the top defenses in the history of the league delivered a super bowl ring without the benefit of a superstar quarterback.<\/p>\n

Since Dilfer’s championship season, only eight different quarterbacks have hoisted the Lombardi Tropy:<\/p>\n

Tom Brady (x4), Eli Manning (x2), Ben Roethlisberger (x2), Brad Johnson, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco and Russell Wilson.<\/p>\n

Of the above mentioned QB’s, none posted numbers as poor as Smith’s over their first two seasons without showing signs of being a franchise quarterback on a somewhat regular basis.<\/p>\n

Fans often reference both Manning brothers as franchise quarterbacks who struggled early on, but in all reality both players were better than what Geno has been for the Jets by a wide margin.<\/p>\n

In the case of Peyton Manning, fans love to remind us that he struggled through a\u00a0poor\u00a0rookie season in which he threw 28 touchdowns but coupled that with 28 interceptions.<\/p>\n

While those numbers would indicate some\u00a0significant ups and downs, the fact of the matter is that Manning didn’t struggle\u00a0for the duration of\u00a0his rookie year, but four horrific performances early on\u00a0would skew his numbers by season’s end.<\/p>\n

Through\u00a0his first four outings as a rookie, Manning would throw 4 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, meaning of course that over the final 12 weeks of the season he logged 24 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.\u00a0 Impressive numbers for a\u00a0first-year\u00a0player\u00a0at a time when the passing game was far more difficult to execute than it is in today’s quarterback-friendly game.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Lack of consistency and turnovers have plagued Smith early in his career.<\/p><\/div>\n

Eli, on the other hand, didn’t take over as a starter until week 10 of his rookie year.\u00a0 Through is first 29 NFL starts, the same number Smith has now, the younger Manning threw 44 touchdowns 34 interceptions.\u00a0 Over that same time frame, Smith has thrown nineteen fewer touchdowns (25) and the same number of interceptions.<\/p>\n

Of course Manning was a more seasoned player and better prospect coming out of Ole’ Miss who wasn’t rushed in to action, but the fact remains that even when Eli looked lost at times, he also showed the flashes that teams look for in a young quarterback more frequently than Smith as with the Jets.<\/p>\n

2)\u00a0 Increased Production in Schedule “Garbage Time”<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

If the final quarter of a blowout game in the NFL is viewed as “garbage time”, it’s hard to argue that the final quarter of a lost season is a whole lot different.\u00a0 Of course a player can\u00a0learn and grow every time he straps the pads on, but\u00a0in each of his first two years in the league, the Jets have been out of the playoff hunt late in the season.\u00a0 While it would be unfair to ignore Smith’s production in those games, it might also be foolish to treat them the same as you would a game that impacted more than just draft position.<\/p>\n

As mentioned above, Smith has\u00a0tossed 25 touchdowns and 34 interceptions through is first two seasons with Gang Green.\u00a0 However, his 10 touchdowns and 4\u00a0interceptions over the final quarter of each of those seasons means Smith has thrown 15 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in weeks 1-12 over the course of his short career.\u00a0\u00a0Tough production to judge based on the cirucmstances surrounding those games.<\/p>\n

In his best-ever performance as a pro in week 17 this season against the Miami Dolphins, some of his biggest plays came not only against a team with nothing to play for, but against a cornerback, Cortland Finnegan, who was on his last legs and announced his retirement not long after he surrendered over 100 yards and a touchdown to Eric Decker in that season finale.<\/p>\n

\"Eric<\/a>

Once healthy down the stretch, Decker saw his production increase and finished the season with a 10 catch 221 yd performance in Miami.<\/p><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

3) Proving People Wrong Isn’t Always a Good Thing<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

The age-old adage in the NFL is that if you give any quarterback enough time to throw the ball, he’ll pick you apart.\u00a0 That has been far from\u00a0true in Smith’s case.<\/p>\n

According to PFF.com<\/strong><\/span><\/a>, Smith had more time from snap to throw (3.10 seconds)\u00a0than any QB in the NFL other than Russell Wilson (3.20).\u00a0 Even with that being the case,\u00a0he was better than just two other quarterbacks (Josh McCown and Blake Bortles) when given 2.5 seconds or more to get the pass off, and completed\u00a0only 50.2% of his passes in those situations.<\/p>\n

Some fans point to Smith’s lack of weapons and in fairness, it’s not one to be discounted.\u00a0 However, it appeared time and again that regardless of the name on the Jersey, Smith often missed his target when the opportunity to make\u00a0 a play presented itself.<\/p>\n

In the infamous “moviegate” game against the San Diego Chargers, Smith turned in one of his worst performances as a pro going 4-12 for 27 yds and one interception before being pulled.\u00a0 This, despite the fact that he\u00a0had multiple opportunities to make plays and move the ball.<\/p>\n

Consistently failing to hit open receivers doomed the offense against the Chargers but it wasn’t because they weren’t open, it was because Smith wasn’t hitting them when they were, regardless of whether he had a clean pocket or was under pressure.<\/p>\n

4) Deep Ball Struggles<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

Utilizing PFF data once again for this category, Smith threw only 45 passes that traveled 20 yards or more through the air, tying him for last in the NFL with Kyle Orton of the Bills, so you can’t ignore the fact that\u00a0Smith still led the NFL in interceptions on deep passes with eight.<\/p>\n

Completing\u00a0just 31% of those passes puts Smith ahead of\u00a0only Blake Bortles and Derek Carr in terms of deep ball accuracy, whereas Fitzpatrick, his projected back-up, ranked second in the NFL behind only Matt Ryan with a 52.6% completion percentage while throwing 6 TD’s and 3 INT’s to Smith’s 5 TD’s and 8 INT’s.<\/p>\n

Smith’s struggles in throwing the ball down field was a key this season as the Jets lost several games by a touchdown or less.<\/p>\n

In a pair of home losses to the division rival Dolphins and Patriots by 3 and 1 point respectively, poorly thrown would-be touchdowns cost the Jets valuable points.<\/p>\n

Against New England, the speedy Percy Harvin was matched up against current Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis and on one particular play, Harvin won the battle. After a double move enabled Harvin to get behind Revis with a clear path to the end zone, Smith had a sizable window in which to put the ball.\u00a0 Instead, his\u00a0overthrown\u00a0pass gave\u00a0Harvin no chance to make a play.<\/p>\n

\"Harvin<\/a>

Harvin beats Revis by a step and with no safety over the top, Smith has plenty of room to make a play.<\/p><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Smith's<\/a>

Smith’s errant pass allows Revis to gain ground on Harivn as the overthrown pass falls to the turf.<\/p><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Faced with a similar situation against the Dolphins, Harvin headed for the end zone and blew past his man giving Smith plenty of room to work with.\u00a0 A good throw would have been a score, but Harvin’s efforts were wasted as once again as Smith’s pass landed out of bounds.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Harvin<\/a>

Harvin gets separation on an out toward the left sideline.<\/p><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Harvin<\/a>

An open Harvin can only watch the ball bounce out of bounds.<\/p><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

These are only a couple of examples, but they’re glaring due to the fact that both games were decided by less than a field goal, and in both cases Smith had plenty of room for error as his receiver was in the clear, but misfired both times, highlighting PFF’s findings in regards to Smith’s lack of accuracy with the deep ball.<\/p>\n

If Smith is going to be a successful NFL quarterback, he’s going to have to become a more accurate passer when his receivers beat coverage down the field.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Harvin<\/a>

Harvin wasn’t as productive as hoped, but it wasn’t always because he wasn’t getting open.<\/p><\/div>\n

5) Prematurely hitting the panic button<\/strong><\/p>\n

As we saw from Smith several times last season, he often took sacks for big losses when protection broke down. \u00a0Rather than hitting the deck or rolling out to throw the ball out-of-bounds,\u00a0he would often scramble toward the opposite goal line before getting hit for a loss which knocked the Jets out of field goal range on several occasions.<\/p>\n

While the pass protection was far better than many realize in 2014, left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson wasn’t the same dominant player he has been in the past, and RT Breno Giacomini was inconsistent on the opposite side.\u00a0 If opposing pass-rushers are able to generate pressure against the Jets, Smith can’t afford to continue costing the offense chunks of negative yards, or taking points off the board by forcing the Jets to go with the punt team instead of the field goal unit.<\/p>\n

With the good and the bad laid out for Smith, now all we can do is wait for training camp to see which version shows up to training camp, and whether Jets fans have more reason to remain optimistic, or to hit the panic button themselves.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  By Glenn Naughton   A few weeks ago we pointed out five reasons for Jets fans to remain optimistic regarding the future of third-year quarterback Geno Smith despite his well-documented struggles as a pro thus far. This week, we look at the other side of the coin and cover some of the lingering concerns […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":26919,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[6,1337],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-28729","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-featured-editorials","8":"category-home-slider"},"acf":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/Geno-2.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/peLffi-7tn","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28729","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/38"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28729"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28729\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28968,"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28729\/revisions\/28968"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28729"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28729"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28729"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}