{"id":17217,"date":"2012-12-21T11:19:16","date_gmt":"2012-12-21T15:19:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jetnation.com\/?p=17217"},"modified":"2012-12-21T11:19:16","modified_gmt":"2012-12-21T15:19:16","slug":"draft-position-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/2012\/12\/21\/draft-position-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"Draft Position Scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"

After the Jets recent loss in glorious fashion, we’re going to start to prepare<\/span> for the draft. With the loss, the Jets can go as high as the 4th<\/span><\/sup> pick<\/span> in the 2013 NFL Draft and as low as the 20th<\/span><\/sup> pick<\/span>. Now to figure out the scenario for each pick might be a bit hard and to keep this from being a novel I will just do two scenarios: highest pick possible and lowest pick possible.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Highest Pick Possible Scenario<\/b><\/p>\n

Jets lose last<\/span> two (duh!)<\/p>\n

Bills win in week 16<\/p>\n

Dolphins beat Patriots in week 17<\/p>\n

Cleveland win<\/span> last two<\/p>\n

Chargers win in week 17<\/p>\n

Titans win last two<\/p>\n

Eagles win last two<\/p>\n

Lions win last two<\/p>\n

Buccaneers win a game<\/p>\n

Cardinals win last two<\/p>\n

Saints beat the Cowboys in week 16<\/p>\n

Panthers win last two<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

If all of that happens then the Jets would finish at 6-10 and would be in a 3-way tie for the 4th<\/span> <\/sup>worst<\/span> record in the league. According to the NFL the first tiebreaker for the draft order is strength of schedule, which as of now and not including anything from the scenario goes as such:<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Jets \u2013 50.2% (112-110-2)<\/p>\n

Eagles \u2013 51.3% (115-109-0)<\/p>\n

Lions \u2013 56.5% (126-98-2)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Jets have clinched<\/span> over the Lions since they share 8 common opponents and the Lions division rivals play each other, so they can’t make-up the 14 game difference so it’s down to Jets vs. Eagles. The Jets and Eagles share two common opponents in the Cardinals and Steelers.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The list below will show the records of the teams in order to make the scenario work and nothing else so some teams might be missing a game or two.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Jets Opponents<\/b><\/p>\n

Bills x2 \u2013 7-9<\/p>\n

Dolphins x2 \u2013 7-9<\/p>\n

Patriots x2 \u2013 10-5<\/p>\n

Steelers \u2013 7-8<\/p>\n

Chargers \u2013 7-9<\/p>\n

Titans \u2013 7-9<\/p>\n

Texans \u2013 12-2<\/p>\n

Jaguars \u2013 2-13<\/p>\n

Colts \u2013 9-5<\/p>\n

49ers \u2013 10-4-1<\/p>\n

Rams \u2013 6-8-1\/7-7-1<\/p>\n

Seahawks \u2013 9-5<\/p>\n

Cardinals \u2013 7-9<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Total if Tampa wins week 16 \u2013 124-118-2 or 125-119(<\/span>51.2%)<\/p>\n

Total if Tampa wins week 17 \u2013 125-117-2 or 126-118(<\/span>51.6%)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Week 16<\/p>\n

Colts at Chiefs (0-1 or 1-0)<\/p>\n

Bengals at Steelers (0-1 or 1-0)<\/p>\n

Patriots at Jaguars (1-2 or 2-1)<\/p>\n

Vikings at Texans (0-1 or 1-0)<\/p>\n

Seahawks at 49ers (1-1)<\/p>\n

Week 17<\/p>\n

Texans at Colts (1-1)<\/p>\n

Rams at Seahawks (1-1)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Best case scenario \u2013 Chiefs, Bengals, Jaguars, & Vikings win(<\/span>4-8)<\/p>\n

Total if Tampa wins week 16 \u2013 128-126-2 or 129-127(<\/span>50.4%)<\/p>\n

Total if Tampa wins week 17 \u2013 129-125-2 or 130-126(<\/span>50.7%)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Eagles opponents<\/p>\n

Cowboys x2 \u2013 8-7<\/p>\n

Giants x2 \u2013 8-7<\/p>\n

Redskins x2 \u2013 8-7<\/p>\n

Cardinals \u2013 7-9<\/p>\n

Lions \u2013 6-10<\/p>\n

Saints \u2013 7-9<\/p>\n

Falcons \u2013 13-3\/12-4<\/p>\n

Bucs \u2013 7-9<\/p>\n

Panthers \u2013 7-9<\/p>\n

Bengals \u2013 8-6<\/p>\n

Ravens \u2013 9-5<\/p>\n

Browns \u2013 7-9<\/p>\n

Steelers \u2013 7-8<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Total if Tampa wins week 16 \u2013 126-119(<\/span>51.4%)<\/p>\n

Total if Tampa wins week 17 \u2013 125-120(<\/span>51%)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Week 16<\/p>\n

Bengals at Steelers (1-1)<\/p>\n

Giants at Ravens (1-2 or 2-1)<\/p>\n

Week 17<\/p>\n

Ravens at Bengals (1-1)<\/p>\n

Bears at Lions (0-1 or 1-0)<\/p>\n

Cowboys at Redskins (2-2)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Best case scenario \u2013 Giants and Lions win (7-5)<\/p>\n

Total if Tampa wins week 16 \u2013 132-124(<\/span>51.6%)<\/p>\n

Total if Tampa wins week 17 \u2013 131-125(<\/span>51.1%)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Basically the Jets have a to see who Tampa beats and how week 16 folds out since if Tampa wins in week 16 then the Jets have a game in hand in SOS going into the rest of the games for the scenario games otherwise Philly will have the game advantage.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

In case you were wondering, there is a scenario in which the Jets tie with the Chargers and Raiders along with Philly and Detroit for the 3rd<\/span><\/sup> pick<\/span> but they would lose to them both in strength of schedule since they are ahead by 10+ games so it’s better to concede the 3rd<\/span><\/sup> pick<\/span> to the Raiders and win the tiebreaker for 4th<\/span><\/sup>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Lowest Pick Scenario<\/b><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

This one will have the Jets finishing at 8-8 with as few ties<\/span> as possible in order to contend for a higher spot. I’m not sure how this will work as in this scenario an 8-8 team or a 9-7 team would make the NFC playoffs thus changing how many teams are tied for the last spot at pick number 20 since 21-32 are reserved for playoff teams.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The scenario goes as follows:<\/p>\n

Jets win last 2<\/p>\n

Vikings lose last 2<\/p>\n

Bears lose last 2<\/p>\n

Giants lose 1 or both<\/p>\n

Cowboys or Redskins lose<\/span> last 2<\/p>\n

All 7 win<\/span> teams lose both games<\/p>\n

All 6 win<\/span> teams lose at least once<\/p>\n

Rams lose once<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

It’s a bit confusing but in these 3 scenarios the Bears and possibly the Vikings along with either one or two of the following: Giants, Cowboys & Redskins would be tied with the Jets at 8-8.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

So either way we would have a 4-way tie for the best record for a team not in the playoffs.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Current strength of schedule not using scenario<\/span><\/p>\n

Jets \u2013 112-110-2 (50.2%)<\/p>\n

Bears \u2013 115-107-2(<\/span>51.8%) Bears +3<\/p>\n

Giants – 118-105-1(<\/span>52.9%) Giants +5.5<\/p>\n

Vikings \u2013 116-106-2(<\/span>52.3%) Vikings +4<\/p>\n

Cowboys \u2013 115-109(<\/span>51.3%) Cowboys +2<\/p>\n

Redskins \u2013 112-111-1(<\/span>50.2%) Jets +.<\/span>5<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The above is not good when it comes to tiebreakers as the Jets must have the best strength of schedule in this case to get the higher pick. To keep it short I won’t do the math in full but basically vs. the<\/span> NFC North teams the Jets share at least 8 common opponents, so for the Jets to have<\/span> any chance the Patriots must win out plus the Bucs and Panthers must lose out. For the NFC East teams the Jets must have the AFC North teams minus Pittsburgh and the NFC South teams lose while the AFC South and Cardinals win out.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

With the way the schedule is set-up though with all division match-ups in week 17, I don’t see a way for the Jets to get the highest pick since in any scenario the Jets have to catch up to either the Vikings, Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys along with the Bears who each will be increasing their strength of schedule by 3(<\/span>division rival gets 2) since they have to lose out to meet this criteria while the Jets lose 3 since they have to win to get into this position. With that huge swing in mind here’s how it would look when you just add the three games to each of the team’s strength of schedule.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Current strength of schedule with the 3 game swing:<\/b><\/p>\n

Jets \u2013 112-113-2<\/p>\n

Bears \u2013 118-107-2 Bears +6<\/p>\n

Giants – 121-105-1 Giants +8.5<\/p>\n

Vikings \u2013 119-106-2 Vikings +7<\/p>\n

Cowboys \u2013 118-109 Cowboys +5<\/p>\n

Redskins \u2013 115-111-1 Redskins +2.5<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Looking at this this would mean that the Jets at best could probably pass only the Redskins while falling short of the Cowboys by a game or two which means the best case scenario would be having the Redskins going 8-8 and the Jets just barely passing them in strength of schedule to get the 18th<\/span><\/sup> pick<\/span> of the draft otherwise it’ll be the 17th<\/span><\/sup> pick<\/span>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

So in conclusion the Jets can possibly draft as high as 4th<\/span><\/sup> and<\/span> as low as 18th<\/span><\/sup> tune<\/span> in next week when this stuff becomes a heck of a lot easier.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After the Jets recent loss in glorious fashion, we’re going to start to prepare for the draft. With the loss, the Jets can go as high as the 4th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft and as low as the 20th pick. Now to figure out the scenario for each pick might be a bit […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":11759,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3,213],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-17217","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl-draft","8":"category-jet-news"},"acf":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/nfldraft1.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/peLffi-4tH","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17217","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17217"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17217\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17219,"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17217\/revisions\/17219"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11759"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17217"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17217"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miletestsite.com\/jets\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17217"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}